The effect of their Brexit vote on the Boston Property Market
Well it’s now 3 weeks since the Referendum vote and we have all had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took. Many of you read the article we wrote on the morning of the results which we released on our blog pages and in the Boston Target.
In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Boston Borough Council area voted as follows:
Boston Borough Council Remain Votes 7,430 24.4% of the vote
Boston Borough Council Leave Votes 22,974 75.6% of the vote
Boston Borough Council Turnout 77.2%
I have been reading that there is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote Remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry’s techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, many surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.
Interestingly, the average age of a Boston resident is 41.5 years old, which is above the national average of 39.3, which might go some way to back up the way Boston voted? What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market needs is uncertainty. This is because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down.
Interestingly, when we look at the homeownership rates in the Boston Borough Council area, of the 17,658 properties that are owned in the Boston Borough Council area (owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.
Age 16 to 34 homeowners 1,624 or 9.2% (Nationally 9.6%)
Age 35 to 49 homeowners 4,413 or 25.0% (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners 5,510 or 31.2% (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners 6,111 or 34.6% (Nationally 30.5%)
So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Boston Borough Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy.
But there’s a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.
So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’ – because many didn’t!